A bettor profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from inside knowledge of the US operation.
Wagers on Polymarket, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be removed from office by the end of January surged in the time leading up to former President Trump stated on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody.
One account, which joined the platform last month and made four bets, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a initial bet of over $32,000.
Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification.
Market statistics shows that traders assessed the probability of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the midday period of the Friday before the event.
However the odds had jumped to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and surged in the morning of Saturday, indicating a sudden change in market sentiment immediately prior to the social media post was made.
"This particular bet has all the characteristics of a transaction based on non-public details," commented a financial reform advocate.
A handful of other platform users also earned tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture.
Elected officials are growing concerned.
Proposed legislation presented on recently would prevent public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a market.
Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to political events.
The industry were examined under the Biden administration. But it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency.
Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market space.
A company executive for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."
A tech journalist with over a decade of experience covering digital innovations and consumer electronics.
